Headlines – Week of December 11, 2011
December 27, 2011
Florida’s Housing Market Bouncing Back
According to three leading U.S. economists, despite national and global headwinds, the state’s real estate market is entering 2012 on an upward trend, according to three leading U.S. economists on Wednesday.
The economists predicting a recovery were part of a panel at the state association’s 2012 Real Estate & Economic Forecast Conference in Orlando. The panel included Florida Realtors chief economist John Tuccillo, Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner and Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
The panelists believe the State is in a mini-recovery with sales trending up, listing inventories falling, the supply of lender-related properties stabilizing, and the start of a trend which includes multiple offers on homes in some local markets.
Many Florida markets are showing sharp drops in inventories of homes for sale – a sign that demand is picking up and prices are stabilizing.
Because of Florida’s appeal to international buyers, Yun was optimistic about the outlook for South Florida, in particular. He expects to see a gain in home prices in the Miami and Naples markets in the next 18 months. From there, the recovery is likely to roll northward to Central Florida and then North Florida.”
In October, there was a 6 percent increase in home sales in northeast Florida, when compared to 2010.
The Great $2 Trillion Global Real Estate Liquidation
According to U.S. hedge fund Fortress Investment Group, more than $2 trillion of global real estate assets is up for sale, either as a result of distress or deleveraging. The firm believes global markets are coming to grips with an historic, generational rebalancing.
This unprecedented volatility has prompted a real estate sell-off which eclipses several times over that seen after the U.S. Savings and Loans crisis from the late 1980s to mid-1990s, and the Asian currency crisis, which began in Thailand and South Korea in 1997.
The S&L crisis generated real estate sales in excess of $260 billion, while the Asian crisis by its end in 2000, prompted a circa $345 billion sell-off, according to Fortress research.
Fortress estimates that real estate asset sales, from all around the world will be several times more than the current $2 trillion it has identified, which far exceeds the total of all asset sales over the entire 20th Century.
Fortress believe calls the current situation … the Great Liquidation and coupled with what they call the Great Litigation will drive a supply-demand imbalance of distressed, illiquid assets that exceeds anything experienced before.
Stressed borrowers, whether countries, banks or real estate investors are trying to survive as long as possible before resorting to selling their assets. The inevitable, Fortress argues, can only be forestalled for so long and eventually, they state, “gravity brings everyone back to earth.”
Where the Work is Heading: 6 Top Job States
According to an article at Forbes.com, Texas is expected to add the most jobs over the next five years on a percentage basis.
Employment in Texas is expected to increase by 2.9 percent annually through 2015, or add 1.6 million new net jobs in that period, according to research from Moody’s Analytics.
Here are the states expected to grow the most with jobs in the next five years, according to Forbes:
1. Texas – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.9%
2. Nevada – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.9%
3. Arizona – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.8%
4. New Mexico – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.6%
5. North Dakota – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.6%
6. Utah – Projected 5-year annual job growth: 2.4%
Posted by Scott Lodde