Headlines – Week of December 9, 2012

December 13, 2012

STR Year-End 2012 Forecast for US Hotels

Smith Travel Research (STR) released its preliminary year-end data.  STR projects that the U.S. hotel industry will finish 2012 by posting strong performances in all major metrics.

Based on STR data through November, preliminary 2012 year-end results for the U.S. hotel industry include:

  • ·         Increases in supply (0.5 percent) and demand (2.8 percent);
  • ·         a 2.3-percent increase in occupancy to 61.3 percent;
  • ·         a 4.3-percent rise in average daily rate to US$106.17; and
  • ·         a 6.6-percent jump in revenue per available room to $65.08.

Record demand along with limited supply growth, has fueled the increases in the other measurement categories.

STR’s latest forecast was issued at its Hotel Data Conference in September and included a 0.5-percent increase in supply, a 2.6-percent increase in demand, a 2.1-percent increase in occupancy, a 4.4-percent increase in ADR and a 6.5-percent increase in RevPAR.

 

Homes Fuel Economy

Once considered a drag on growth, real estate has reversed course and is now a key economic driver at a time when other sectors are slowing.

Macroeconomic Advisers projects the economy will grow at a 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter, with housing contributing 0.4 percentage point. IHS Global Insight is projecting a 1% growth rate, with housing contributing 0.53 of a percentage point—the largest contribution since 2005.

Home prices rose 3.6% in September from a year ago, according to a recent S&P/Case-Shiller National Index. Prices are up 7% through the first nine months of 2012, which is the strongest rise since 2005 and puts prices on a trajectory to beat even the most optimistic forecasts from earlier this year. The gains also are broad-based, with the 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller index—except Chicago and New York—showing year-over-year gains.

Rising home values make homeowners feel better about their finances. A recent index of confidence by the Conference Board rose to 73.7 in November, the highest level since February 2008.

While rising prices now are driving the housing market forward, that couldn’t have happened without a painful cycle of losses. Lower prices and rock-bottom interest rates have boosted affordability. The average monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home in October, assuming a 10% down payment, fell to $720 at prevailing rates, down from nearly $1,270 at the end of 2005.

 

Highlights from the NAR 2012 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

The annual survey conducted by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® of recent home buyers and sellers provides insight into detailed information about their experiences

Here you can find highlights from the latest report.

  • 39 percent of recent home buyers were first-time buyers, a slight rise from 2011, but closer to the historical norm of 40 percent.
  • 65 percent of recent home buyers were married couples—the highest share since 2001. Conversely there was the lowest share of single buyers since 2001.
  • For 52 percent of home buyers, the first step in the home-buying process was taken online.
  • The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 10 homes—a decline from 12 homes in prior year, which speaks to the tightened inventory in many areas.
  • 89 percent of buyers purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker, similar to last year’s report—a share that steadily increased from 69 percent in 2001.
  • 88 percent of sellers were assisted by a real estate agent when selling their home.
  • Only 9 percent of recent sellers sold via FSBO sale. Among FSBO sellers who did not know the buyer prior to the sale—20 percent sold via FSBO because the buyer directly contacted them.
  • Approximately two-thirds of home sellers only contacted one agent before selecting the one to assist with their home sale.

 

Posted by Scott R. Lodde

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